Drop-off in renewable projects will deprive Cardston County of major tax revenues

Posted on November 27, 2025 by admin

By Cal Braid
Southern Alberta Newspapers
Local Journalism Initiative Reporter

The latest analysis from the Business Renewables Centre of Canada (BRC) shows that the MD of Taber and Cardston County are benefiting from renewable energy tax revenues in 2025 – but still losing out in the long term.

 The BRC, in conjunction with the think tank Pembina Institute, found that the MD of Taber collected $3 million in tax revenue from seven projects — five solar and two wind. Cardston County collected $1.1 million from three projects — one solar and two wind. However, those benefits can’t be maximized under current provincial policies.

 “All the projects contributing revenue this year were initiated, approved, and constructed before the provincial moratorium on new renewable projects was announced in August 2023,” a Pembina news release said. The moratorium was lifted a year later, but has had a hangover effect that lingers in the industry.

 Project cancellations have cost the MD approximately $4.8 million in potential annual revenue – far more than the $3 million it’s currently receiving. Cardston County has forfeited approximately $3.1 million in potential annual revenue – almost triple the $1.1 million that it receives.

 BRC Project Manager Carson Fong explained that his work with Pembina Institute aims to accelerate the development of renewable energy across Canada through corporate procurement.

 “It’s about pairing organizations that are looking to secure renewable energy to power their operations with project developers across Canada,” he said. That enables projects to get underway and generate renewable energy for the grid in Alberta.

 “Over the past five years, this market has been the hub, the center in Canada for renewable energy procurement,” he said.

 Fong explained that before the moratorium was lifted, the government and the Alberta Electricity System Operator (AESO) embarked on a process of redesigning the entire electricity market in Alberta. He said over the two year process, the Province has announced its design, but the details of how the new rules will be implemented are still sketchy.

 “What we’ve learned from investors is that if they don’t know how profitable their projects will be across the 20- or 30-year lifespan, then they’re not really comfortable jumping in yet, and so a lot of investors are just waiting – have been waiting since 2023 for a lot of the dust to settle,” he said.

 The concern is that major investors will take their capital to other provinces or other countries that have stable policies in place.

 Fong said the leading indicators he tracks are announcements of power purchase agreements. Power purchase agreements occur when a large company announces that it has purchased ‘X’ number of megawatts from a new wind or solar project for eight to 10 years. The announcements typically come before construction starts, and it’s that contract that allows a project to get financing, because the project represents a large, stable future revenue source.

 Most notably, Fong said, “In the past two years, we’ve seen a 96 per cent drop-off compared to the two years previous. It’s a cliff.”

 He said the effects take some time to catch up, but he expects to see a big reduction in the number of new projects that come online. All the new projects that came online this year had all started approvals and construction before 2023, so the time delay is reflected.

 “Now we just want to throw up the warning sign that we’re going to see a big drop-off in the coming years if the policy environment doesn’t change,” he said.

 Which explains what initially looked like a contradiction in the Pembina press release. It said province-wide, Alberta municipalities collected a record $70 million from renewable energy projects this year – a 30 per cent increase from $54 million in 2024, and a 151 per cent increase from $28 million in 2023. Twenty-six counties now benefit from the revenue.

 On the other hand, it said that province-wide, the project cancellation rate has increased five-fold. Fifty-three projects have been cancelled since the moratorium, representing approximately $84 million in lost annual tax revenues for Alberta municipalities, more than this year’s growth.

 “Corporate renewable energy procurement has collapsed,” the release said, referring to the same 96 per cent drop Fong described, but his explanation of the time-lapse effect explains the apparent contradiction.

 Taken together, it means the revenue growth won’t continue without new projects, and future developments have stalled due to regulatory uncertainty.

 “We just hope to draw attention and provide some information on how municipalities and counties can benefit in terms of tax base from these projects,” Fong said. “And what might be at risk if we aren’t able to attract future investment to these places.”